Commentary: Drafting on Potential: Surprises, & Busts

We're a week removed from the conclusion of the 2019 NFL Draft. Since conclusion, there have been numerous discussions on the draft classes of the 32 NFL teams. "Experts" have debated winners and losers, questioned picks and attempted to predict the future.

Why? I understand the NFL is a year-long sport, as most sports are these days. The NFL Draft is the unofficial kickoff of the next season. The issue I have is with the analysts and their predictions. No one really knows how a prospect will turn out until they step onto the playing field. Even then, it still takes time.

How long? My own theory is it can take 3-5 years to get a final ruling on a team's draft class. A player's first contract length is typically four years. By, the time the contract reaches the end, a team knows if they need to offer a new contract or let the player walk.

But, why do people spends months trying to predict what a team will do, only to analyze how the draftees fit their new team for weeks after?

I think the answer is simple, it's what they get paid to do, and people are always searching for the next big hope.

Read the opening paragraphs of "Todd McShay's way-too-early first-round draft predictions" on ESPN. You'll see what I mean.

McShay writes, "I haven't even studied tape on most of these players yet; I start in on that next week, so these evaluations are based on watching players in person or on TV last season."

This whole process is built on delivering and instilling one thing into a fanbase: Hope.

Think for a second. Think about the times you've checked a mock draft, or just watched your favorite team pick in the actual draft. Analysts, who have poured over hours of information, have a good idea on how a player fits with a team.

Case in point: 2010 NFL Draft. Jimmy Clausen was picked in the second round by the Carolina Panthers. On live TV, Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN stated, “If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, I’m done. That’s it. I’m out.” McShay asked how long would he need to decide on Clausen, to which Kiper responded with eight years.

The Panthers would draft Cam Newton the following year, who beat Clausen out for the starting job. Cut by Carolina the following year, Clausen found his way to two other teams before being out of the league by 2015.

Kiper is still there. He's still there pouring over information of the newest prospects entering the draft. He's still there during the Draft, letting people know what he thinks about picks that are made.

People eat it up. Don't get me wrong, I understand it. It is what fans do. They follow with unquestionable loyalty, experiencing the highs and lows each game. When the season concludes, they're already looking at the newest crop of players for their team.

At the start of any season, you hear the same adage everyone believes. "It's a new season. Anything is possible." The new season, could be the year everything turns around. Their team could end the season with a championship.

Slowly, the talk of potential with the draft class will subside as teams move towards the true beginning of the season; with mini and training camps. The same "experts" will begin using words as surprises, and busts.

The issue is, you can look at a person's measurables, but you can't see the intangibles. It is easy to predict someone like Peyton Manning, or John Elway are going to be special. But, you can't say the same of JaMarcus Russell, or Tim Couch.

These four have one thing in common, they were all the first pick of their respective drafts. Two of them hand long, storied careers. Two were out of the league within five seasons. Even the casual fan can probably split the two.

It is a simple thing to say that these breakdowns can't predict the future. It is hard to believe Hall of Famers like Warren Moon and John Randle did not get drafted at all. They were signed after their drafts ended as undrafted free agents.

Arguably, the greatest quarterback of all-time, Tom Brady wasn't drafted in the first round, but in the sixth. I highly recommend watching "The Brady Six" an ESPN "30 for 30" documentary.

Analysts give the mock drafts, and speak on the potential of prospects. The fans soak it up and think of how the newest crop of talent can help lead their team to the promised land. By the time the season is over, fans are already digging for information that analysts give.

It's a vicious cycle, proving sports, like the NFL, are truly year round.

Like I stated earlier, you can never guess how the draft turned out for your team until several years have passed with them in the league. Take a minute and look at your favorite team. How did the 2016 draft turn out for them? 2015?

Maybe how you thought they did then, is completely different now. Regardless, I bet you're already trying to predict how this year will help, or hurt your team.

I did want to take time to congratulate five former Appalachian State Mountaineers for making it into the NFL as undrafted free agents.

Jalin Moore and MyQuon Stout both signed with the New York Jets. Clifton Duck signed with the Chicago Bears. Austin Exford signed with the Houston Texans. Tay Hayes signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Personally, I hoped to see a few of them drafted, but I am glad to see more Mountaineers in the NFL.